Commercial sensitivity analysis
Mushroom Contamination Loss & Break-Even Calculator
See how contamination changes the number of blocks you must start, the cost of waste, cost per saleable kilogram and weekly margin. Then find the approximate loss rate where the crop stops contributing toward overhead and profit.
Farm assumptions
Model a fixed saleable weekly target. The simulator increases starts to replace expected crop loss.
Crop-loss sensitivity
Every row delivers the same 50 kg saleable target.
| Crop loss | Blocks started | Lost blocks | Waste cost | Unit cost | Weekly contribution | Margin | Margin lost vs 0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 72 | 0 | $0 | $18.20/kg | -$10 | -1.1% | 0 pts |
| 5% | 76 | 4 | $37 | $18.93/kg | -$47 | -5.2% | 4.1 pts |
| 10% | 80 | 8 | $73 | $19.67/kg | -$83 | -9.3% | 8.1 pts |
| 15% | 85 | 13 | $119 | $20.58/kg | -$129 | -14.4% | 13.2 pts |
| 20% | 90 | 18 | $165 | $21.50/kg | -$175 | -19.4% | 18.3 pts |
| 25% | 96 | 24 | $220 | $22.60/kg | -$230 | -25.6% | 24.4 pts |
| 30% | 103 | 31 | $284 | $23.88/kg | -$294 | -32.7% | 31.6 pts |
| 40% | 120 | 48 | $440 | $27.00/kg | -$450 | -50% | 48.9 pts |
Loss costs more than substrate
A failed block consumes materials, inoculation and labor. It also uses incubation or fruiting capacity that could have held a saleable block.
Measure by batch stage
Record whether losses occur after inoculation, during incubation or in fruiting. The same loss percentage can have very different capacity and labor costs.
Reduce and re-plan
This is a planning model, not a guarantee. It assumes failed blocks incur full entered material and labor cost and that surviving blocks meet the entered yield.